The resilience in market earnings forecasts is in sharp contrast to the pattern seen in recent years. In each of the past five years (2012–2016) consensus estimates have declined materially in the first quarter. In each case, estimates continued to be reduced through the rest of the year.
The first round of the French presidential elections delivered an outcome close to both pre-election polls and market expectations, reversing the trends seen during the BREXIT referendum and the US presidential election in 2016.
We have witnessed some big moves in financial markets in the early hours of trading today following the confirmation that Emmanuel Macron will face Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French Presidential election. European corporate bond spreads were tighter on the news, and the euro was up by over 1% versus the U.S. dollar.